Mortality in Wales 2002 to 2016
This report highlights an important change in mortality trends in Wales between 2002 and 2016 and investigates the causes of the reported 2015 increase in mortality.
Key Messages
Mortality has generally been decreasing in Wales since the Second World War. This report highlights that since around 2011, the decline in mortality has faltered.
A plateau in life expectancy in Wales is also evident since around 2011. This phenomenon has been repeated across much of Western Europe, but in Wales the effect occurred earlier and only Scotland now has lower life expectancy.
The faltering of the decline in the overall mortality rate has been driven by increased deaths in the 85-89 and 90+ age groups. However, mortality rates in 55-84 year olds are also no longer in decline.
Mortality rates for England and Wales rose significantly in 2015 causing widespread public health, media and academic interest. In Wales this increase was due at least in part to increases in deaths from flu and pneumonia and dementia and Alzheimer’s disease among those aged 75+.
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Dr Ciarán Humphreys, Director of Health Intelligence said, ‘The changes described in this brief report mark an important shift in the mortality trend. We will continue to work alongside partners both to monitor the ongoing mortality trends and to further explore the factors that may be driving the changes we have highlighted’.
Explore Data Further
This report highlights an important change in mortality trends in Wales between 2002 and 2016 and investigates the causes of the reported 2015 increase in mortality.
The publication consists of:
Following the publication of our report we committed to work alongside partners both to monitor the ongoing mortality trends and to further explore the factors that may be driving the changes we highlighted. To that end in March 2019 we hosted representatives from public health and statistics agencies from across the UK nations in the second of a series of workshops where we were able to consider the factors that might underlie the worrying changes that have been observed from the perspective of the four home nations and the UK as a whole.
The notes from the meeting are available here.
A large number of exploratory analyses were shared at the workshop and three explanatory hypotheses were considered: the potential impact of influenza on excess mortality; the potential impact of economic austerity; and the potential impact of pressures in the health and social care systems.
The early conclusions were that there is no one clear explanation, and these hypotheses represent pieces of a puzzle. Many of the issues are interconnected, and it was agreed that the austerity/economic hypothesis is closely related to the health and social care hypotheses. It was agreed that further work should follow to understand the links between austerity and health and social care, and to apply a rigorous and scientific approach to identify some consistent measures between the nations.
A further workshop was held in London in June where the hypotheses were further refined and where actions were agreed to allow work on the three hypotheses to proceed. A further workshop is due to take place in Belfast towards the end of November.
We have committed to sharing key findings with Government, policy makers and health and social care leaders throughout the UK.
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We are always looking to improve on the products we produce to ensure that they are user-friendly. If you have any comments or feedback on the Mortality in Wales report, then please get in touch with us by emailing: publichealthwalesobservatory@wales.nhs.uk
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