Published: 7 April 2025
New analysis conducted by Public Health Wales aims to help health professionals and policymakers focus their efforts at reducing smoking.
The study employed novel machine learning techniques, that looked at over sixty characteristics of people who were still smoking and people who had successfully given up. It used those features to create new groups of young people and adults with different profiles, to help understand who might need more help to quit smoking.
Tailoring smoking cessation to meet the needs of people who are struggling or reluctant to quit is vital in achieving Welsh Government’s aim of a smoke-free Wales by 2030. While more and more people in Wales are turning away from smoking, additional effort is needed to help those who are continuing or even starting to smoke.
Protecting children from the harms of smoking is essential. Nine out of 10 lifetime smokers start between 10 and 20 years old, increasing the risk of lung disease, cardiovascular disease and a range of cancers. Most smokers wish they had never started, but overcoming the addiction is difficult. This analysis identified six different groups of young people aged 11-16 years, who were more likely to smoke (e.g. based on their mental well-being, their alcohol and drug use, and their physical activity).
Researchers also found that adults who smoke could also be divided into different groups. For example, one group was made up of older, mostly retired smokers who had enough money for a good life, were satisfied with life but suffered from poor health. Other groups were defined by younger age, employment, marital or education status, whether they were living with children, alcohol use, vaping or deprivation.
The insights from this research will help health and education policymakers to shape guidance and strategies for smoking cessation efforts. Additionally, it may help GPs to better understand combinations of possible motivations and circumstances for smoking in their patients to tailor advice or referral to Help Me Quit services.
Annette Evans, Principal Statistician at Public Health Wales, said:
“Using these statistical techniques on large population surveys has given us new insights into who is still smoking tobacco in Wales.”
“This analysis demonstrates the value of utilising data in our efforts to stop the use of tobacco and to mitigate the health and well-being harms it causes, and will help to achieve Welsh Government’s aim of a smoke-free Wales by 2030”.
The report can be found here.