Findings - Time

Non-intentional water-related fatalities by year, season, and day of incident

Year

There were between three and nine fatalities per year during the 10-year period in children and young people under 25 years (fig 2).

The lowest number of fatalities occurred in 2020 when there were three, and the highest number of fatalities occurred in 2016 when there were nine. The number of water-related fatalities recorded each year is small and the data can fluctuate over time, therefore any year-on-year changes should be interpreted with caution.

For children under 18 years of age (not shown separately), there were between one and five fatalities per year during the 10-year period. The lowest number of fatalities occurred in 2017 when there was one, and the highest number of fatalities occurred in 2022 when there were five. 

Fig 2. Count of non-intentional water-related fatalities in children and young people, Wales, 2013-22, by year of incident. (Produced by CDRP, using CDRP and WAID data).

Mean and standard deviation: The mean number of fatalities per year over the 10-year period in children and young people under 25 years of age was six, and the standard deviation was two. The three fatalities in 2020 were outside of one standard deviation below the mean. The nine fatalities in 2016 were outside one standard deviation above the mean. In every other year, the number was within one standard deviation. It is expected that around one third of the time the number would be outside one standard deviation of the mean, so the variation in numbers is what would be expected. 

The mean number of fatalities per year over the 10-year period in children under 18 years of age was three per year, and the standard deviation was one. The one fatality in 2017 was outside of one standard deviation below the mean. The five fatalities in 2022 were outside one standard deviation above the mean. Although it would be expected that around one third of the time the number would be outside one standard deviation of the mean, it will still be important to monitor this in the future to determine whether there is an upward trend.

Season

Almost half (29 out of 62, 47%) of all fatalities occurred during the summer months (June to August) (fig. 3).

Fig 3. Count of non-intentional water-related fatalities in children and young people, Wales, 2013-22, by season of incident. (Produced by CDRP, using CDRP and WAID data).

Day

Fatalities most commonly occurred on a Sunday (fig. 4).

Fig 4. Count of non-intentional water-related fatalities in children and young people, Wales, 2013-22, by day of incident. (Produced by CDRP, using CDRP and WAID data).

Mean and standard deviation:  The mean number of fatalities per day was nine. Three out of seven weekdays were outside one standard variation of the mean which is more than would be expected. Sunday was outside of one standard deviation above the mean. However, a peak at the weekend would be expected.